U.S. Humanoid Output Could Hit 400,000 a Year by 2030, J.P. Morgan Says

J.P. Morgan expects U.S. humanoid production to reach 300,000 to 400,000 units a year by 2030 as factories move from demonstrations to deployment.

Humanoid robot production in the United States will reach 300,000 to 400,000 units a year by 2030 and about 1.5 million by 2035, J.P. Morgan said on Thursday, as the industry shifts from demonstrations to commercial deployment.

Labor shortages, improving economics and rising production capacity are pulling humanoids into manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, where businesses are looking to automate repetitive tasks. The bank estimates humanoid costs are nearing parity with labor costs, and a robot working multiple shifts could save a customer about $100,000 a year.

The near term is still supply constrained. J.P. Morgan points to four binding bottlenecks: hands, actuators, the robot's brain, and production capacity. Most U.S. manufacturers outside Tesla are targeting 10,000 to 30,000 units a year. The bank also notes that the Trump administration's finding that imported robotics and industrial machinery pose national security risks could lead to tariffs or other measures to boost domestic production.

Component suppliers offer the biggest near-term opportunity, in the bank's view: the market for key parts such as actuators, motors and vision systems could approach $30 billion by 2035. J.P. Morgan favors suppliers including Timken, Robotis, Leader Drive, Orbbec and Cognex, and expects value creation to shift over time toward robot makers and platform integrators. Among U.S. humanoid makers, it highlights Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's robots and Apptronik's Apollo.