IDC: FCC robot curbs will cut US humanoid revenue 58% by 2030
The trade-policy model puts the decade's lost US humanoid revenue above $6 billion — as Chinese vendors hold roughly 95% of global shipments.
United States humanoid robot revenue will land 58% below the pre-restriction baseline by 2030, according to a new International Data Corporation trade-policy model reported by Fortune — a shortfall of more than $6 billion by the end of the decade, with annual sector growth sliding from about 13% to roughly 9%. It is the first quantified estimate of what Washington's robot restrictions will cost the industry.
The trigger is a Federal Communications Commission order issued July 28 that added ‘foreign-produced advanced robotic devices’ to its Covered List, blocking new foreign robot models from obtaining the authorization required for US imports and sales. Previously authorized models can still be imported and sold, and some software and firmware updates remain permitted through at least January 1, 2029. Vendors can pursue conditional approval through a national-security review that requires commitments to move manufacturing to the United States.
The gap is so large because of who dominates supply. IDC estimates that Chinese vendors such as Unitree and AgiBot account for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments, while China and the US represent 21% and 18% of global consumption respectively — Europe buys more than double the US share.
The FCC has meanwhile granted Intel a one-year waiver to keep updating and maintaining some of its factory robots, after the chipmaker argued its automated guided vehicles were essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing and that no domestic alternative existed.
The numbers arrive as shipments accelerate: vendors shipped an estimated 25,000 humanoids in the first half of 2026, already 26% more than the 18,500 shipped in all of 2025, and IDC projects more than 750,000 units by 2030. Household cleaning robots fare far better in the model — down only 18% by 2030, cushioned by an established inventory of certified units.
One caution worth keeping in view: these are model projections, not observed outcomes. If restrictions loosen, domestic supply scales faster than expected, or conditional approvals flow, the hole shrinks. If they hold, the US market decouples from the hardware that currently leads the world.